Cure - buy signal 15/12

Products SPA3 Income
1

I’m Paper Trading CURE off signal 15/12/25 with entry on 16/12 of 109.51 (close of 15/12) and i actually used a stop loss of 106.99 – just below the low of 15/12 – which i guess is outside the mechanical set ups used

Yesterdays high was bang on 200% of previous high range 29/12/25 ( 16.239/7.9542)

Normally i would have set my profit target profit at this point (5.6 R trade) .. which again i expect is outside the mechanical sell trigger

Id be interested in any thoughts/comments

2

Hi Col,

i actually used a stop loss of 106.99 – just below the low of 15/12 – which i guess is outside the mechanical set ups used

Correct, is it outside the rules of SPA3 Investor. The closer Stop Loss you have set will result is a shorter term system (assuming you use the same exit calculations for other entry signals), which would be misaligned with the BO entry that is used - from a system design viewpoint.

Yesterdays high was bang on 200% of previous high range 29/12/25 ( 16.239/7.9542)

Assuming exit is intraday on 7 Jan?

Your outcome using these 2 exits will be:

  1. a shorter Avg Hold Period per trade,
  2. a different Payoff Ratio, probably lower due to the close Profit Stop relative to the close TS
  3. more trading
  4. more time requirement

What growth would be achieved would require portfolio simulation.

BTW, the close and the low that you have used in 16/12 not 15/12.

IMO system-design-wise, profits are being cut way too soon for the EOD entry that is generated by SPA3 Income.

For example (a sample of one I know, but it illustrates my point), the previous CURE trade would have been multiple trades with the first probably being stopped out as a loss.

image
image1302×722 14.4 KB

In summary, the exits described will make this a completely different system. Not a wrong system, just different.

Both could be traded. Would the closer exits be a better system? I don’t know without seeing all the metrics of a large sample of trades.

Will leave it there w/o discussing the psychology of needing to change the exits of a system with known and detailed edge statistics derived from research (with lots of live trading still to come).

3

Thanks Gary – appreciate commentary and reference to “system known and detailed edge stats” -

My take profit was preset at trade bid/entry – so assuming price touched then yes would have been an intraday exit

Again thanks for reply