This was hands down the most profitable trade i have ever made. Sold this morning MOC.
Looking back at other Overbought signals more often than not a re entry signal appears. Could someone explain the reason for the Overbought signal and why the instrument isnt allowed to run on until it gets a SELL signal due to technical indicators.
Also can you hold on to see if it gets a re entry or is this deviating and too emotional?
Peter
Hi Peter,
Plenty of comments on SOXL as you can imagine - very nice trade indeed.
The Overbought Exit and Reentry were introduced to improve the edge as evident below (left without, right with):
Can you hold and hope? Would you have held back in October 2025 after a +150% gain, just in case? Whilst a 20% fall after a big run up may seem small - they all add up. We really want to reduce the end of trade drawdown as much as possible. If that sometimes means exiting early and leaving profits in the market - anything can happen…
It sure was a beauty. I think the Overbought Exit signal not only improves the edge, but also assists us psychologically to stick to the system, no matter what we might think may happen.
Harvesting a big profit is ALWAYS easier than taking a big loss and makes it easier to enter the next trade without questioning whether now is the right time to take that trade.
ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN - SOXL could run further (in which case we will get a re-entry signal) or it might drop 20-30% in the next few sessions. Stick to the system, don’t question the edge and you will be rewarded in time.
The Overbought Exit also allows the next position size to be reset.
If the next trade in a portfolio happens to be an Overbought Re-entry into the trade just exited with an Overbought Exit, and that turns out to be a loss trade, the probability is that the %age loss will be smaller and on a smaller position.
Thanks Guys
Just re read your responses. Makes sense
1 Like
I am interested to hear from members - I already own URTY (Russell2000 3x), should l buy UWN ( Russell2000 2x) or wait? Given the exposure in Russell 2000
1 Like
Good question. Thoughts anyone?
I’m in the same position as Anton. I’m going to wait for the next buy signal as I want to maintain diversification, especially in a five position portfolio.
Here’s my reply from one of the LTTP Forums yesterday. Sorry, should have posted it on an open Forum.
Hi, no we shouldn’t.
The SPA3 Income PP Investment Plan and the LTTP Skills Acquisition Plan don’t say it should be skipped if you already have an open ETF position tracking the same ‘base index’.
It does cover the scenario where there is more than 1 Buy signal vying for 1 vacant position and there is a choice of ETFs that track different ‘base indices’. In that scenario you’d choose the ETF that does NOT track a ‘base index’ of an already open ETF.
Otherwise, simply choose the highest ranked Buy signal in the App, which is the highest Ranking Buy signal in the BC Scan.
Why? Because that is what we did with the research Simulations.
The aim is to deploy as much of the capital allocated to the portfolio as possible to the edge. I.E. maximise Exposure %.
Logic: the probability of growing the cash allocated to the portfolio is far higher investing it in the edge in the market than leaving it in cash.
Not doing this violates 3 of The 5 Fundamental Truths. Which 3?
Blockquote
Blockquote
Thanks for clearing that up Gary.